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2008-08-05 11:53  来源:     我要纠错 打印 收藏   

 China's Roadmap
中国绘制经济路线图

  1. China is about to adopt its 11th five-year plan, setting the stage for the continuation of probably the most remarkable economic transformation in history. while improving the well-being of almost a quarter of the world's population. Never before has the world seen such sustained growth; never before has there been so much poverty reduction.
  1、中国即将实施第十一个五年规划。这是旨在造福于世界近1/4的人口,为或许是历史上最为可观的经济转型的持续发展所做的准备。在世界范围内这样可持续的发展前所未见,如此大规模的脱贫亦史无前例。

  2. Part of the key to China's long-run success has been its almost unique combination of pragmatism and vision. While much of the rest of' the developing world, following the Washington Consensus, has been directed at a quixotic quest for higher GDP, China has once again made clear that it seeks sustainable and more equitable increases in real living standards.
  2、中国长期的成功发展,部分原因在于其近乎无可比拟地将远见卓识与脚踏实地合而为一。华盛顿共识形成后,在其他发展中国家都不切实际地致力于提高国内生产总值时,中国再次重申,人民实际生活水平的持续、均衡提高,才是其追求的目标。

  3. China realizes that it has entered a phase of economic growth that is imposing enormous—and unsustainable—demands on the environment. Unless there is a change in course, living standards will eventually be compromised. That is why the new five-year plan places great emphasis on the environment.
  3、 中国意识到其经济发展已进入了给环境造成沉重负担的阶段,这个负担甚至让发展难以为继。除非改变做法,否则将最终危及人民生活水平的提高。这也是新的五年规划把环境问题当作重中之重的原因所在。

  4. Even many of the more backward parts of China have been growing at a pace that would be a marvel, were it not for the fact that other parts of the country are growing even more rapidly. While this has reduced poverty, inequality has been increasing, with growing disparities between cities and rural areas, and between coastal regions and the interior.
  4、即使中国许多更为落后的地区在以令人惊异的速度发展,也不能就此忽视这个国家的其他地区发展速度更为迅捷的事实。随着城市和农村、沿海和内地差距的增大,在削减贫穷的同时,不平等也在加剧。

  5. This year's World Bank World Development Report explains why inequality, not just poverty, should be a concern, and China's 11th five-year plan attacks the problem head-on. The government has for several years talked about a more harmonious society, and the plan describes ambitious programs for achieving this.
  5、今年《世界银行的世界发展报告》说明了人们为何更该关注不平等问题,而不光是贫穷问题。中国第十一个五年规划,也着手正面解决这个问题。近年来政府一直宣传建立更和谐社会,第十一个五年规划则描述了实现和谐社会的宏图大计。

  6. China recognizes, too, that what separates less developed from more developed countries is not only a gap in resources, but also a gap in knowledge. So it has laid out bold plans not only to reduce that gap, but to create a basis for independent innovation.
  6、中国也认识到,落后国家和发达国家不仅在资源上存在着差距,在知识上也同样有相当距离。因此中国制定了大胆的计划,不仅要缩小这个差距,还要为独立创新奠定基础。

  7. China's role in the world and the world's economy has changed, and the plan reflects this, too. Its future growth will have to be based more on domestic demand than on exports, which will require increases in consumption. Indeed, China has a rare problem: excessive savings. People save partly because of weaknesses in government social-insurance programs; strengthening social security (pensions) and public health and education will simultaneously reduce social inequalities, increase citizens' sense of well-being, and promote current consumption.
  7、中国在全球和世界经济中扮演的角色已经改变,这一点在五年规划中也有所反映。中国未来的发展将不得不更多地依靠国内需求而非出口,这就需要扩大国内消费。的确,中国面对的问题十分罕见:那就是储蓄过多。人们大量储蓄的部分原因在于政府的社会保险计划存在缺陷,强化社会保险(养老金)、公共卫生和教育之际,亦将减少社会不平等,增强人们的幸福感并促进时下消费。

  8. If successful—and, so far, China has almost always surpassed even its own high expectations—these adjustments may impose enormous strains on a global economic system that is already unbalanced by the US' huge fiscal and trade deficits. If China saves less—and if, as officials have announced, it pursues a more diversified policy of investing its reserves—who will finance the US trade deficit of more than US$2 billion a day? This is a topic for another day, but that day may not be far off.
  8、一直以来,中国几乎每次都能够超额完成自己设定的最高日标。眼下的目标如果实现,这些调整可能会给因美国的巨额财政和贸易赤字导致本已失衡的全球经济体系带来巨大压力。如果中国的储蓄减少,如果像其官方公布的,中国实行—种更多样的储蓄投资政策,那么谁将认购美国一天20多亿美元的贸易赤字?这个问题目前似乎并非迫在眉睫,但我们距离那天已为时不远。

  9. With such a clear vision of the future, the challenge will be implementation. China is a large country, and it could not have succeeded as it has without widespread decentralization. But decentralization raises problems of its own.
  9、中国对未来具有如此明确的远见卓识,挑战则在寸:如何贯彻落实。中国幅员辽阔,没有广泛的分权不会成功。但权力分散又会产生相应的问题。

  10. Greenhouse gases, for example, are global problems. While the US says that it cannot afford to do anything about it, China's senior officials have acted more responsibly. Within a month of the adoption of the plan, new environmental taxes on cars, gasoline, and wood products were imposed: China was using market-based mechanisms to address its and the world's environmental problems.
  10、例如,温室气体排放是个全球性的问题。在美国宣称对此无能为力之时,中国高级官员表现了更负责任的行为。在规划被采纳后的一个月内,中国政府就对汽车、汽油和木制品征收了新的环境税:中国正利用市场机制解决其自身和世界的环境问题。

  11. But the pressures on local government officials to deliver economic growth and jobs will be enormous. They will be sorely tempted to argue that, "If the US cannot afford to produce in a way that preserves our planet, how can we?" To translate its vision into action, the Chinese government will need strong policies, such as the environmental taxes already imposed.
  11、但这对要发展经济和创造就业机会的地方官员造成巨大的压力。他们会很自然地辩解说:“如果美国不能以环保方式生产,我们又怎么能够做到?”为了把远见变成行动,中国政府需要推行强有力的政策,已经开始征收的环境税即为一例。

  12. As China has moved towards a market economy, it has developed some of the problems that have plagued the developed countries: special interests that clothe self-serving arguments behind a thin veil of market ideology.
  12、随着中国向市场经济过渡,一直困扰发达国家的问题也在中国显现:在薄薄的市场意识的面纱后,隐藏着有自私自利企图的特殊利益集团。

  13. Some will argue for trickle-down economics: Don't worry about the poor, eventually everybody will benefit from growth. And some will oppose competition policy and strong corporate governance laws: Let Darwinian survival work its wonders. Growth arguments will be advanced to counter strong social and environmental policies: Higher gasoline taxes, for example, will kill our nascent auto industry.
  13、有些人可能主张滴入式经济学;不必为穷人担心,每个人最终都会从经济发展中获益。有些人可能会反对竞争政策,反对强有力的企业监管法律,主张让达尔文进化论的适者生存显现奇效。反对强化社会与环保政策的言论会日渐突出,比如有人会说,高额的燃油税会扼杀我们新生的汽车工业。

  14. Such allegedly pro-growth policies would not only fail to deliver growth; they would threaten the entire vision of China's future. There is only one way to prevent this: open discussion of economic policies in order to expose fallacies and provide scope for creative solutions to the many challenges facing China today. US President George W. Bush has shown the dangers of excessive secrecy and confining decision-making to a narrow circle of sycophants. Most people outside China do not fully appreciate the extent to which its leaders, by contrast, have engaged in extensive deliberations and broad consultations (even with foreigners) as they strive to solve the enormous problems they face.
  14、然而,这些所谓的主张发展的政策不仅不能带来发展,还会威胁到事关中国未来的完整的远景规划。阻止的办法只有一个:那就是公开探讨经济政策。只有这样才能揭穿谬论,有可能为当今中国所面临的诸多挑战制定有创意的解决方案。美国总统乔治·W·布什暗箱操作,把决策权交给一小部分拍马逢迎之徒的做法,已彰显其害。相比这下,绝大多数外国人并不完全了解中国领导人在努力解决所面对的重大问题时,如何广泛协商并多方听取意见(甚至包括外国人的意见)。

  15. Market economies are not self-regulating. They cannot simply be left on autopilot, especially if one wants to ensure that their benefits are shared widely. But managing a market economy is no easy task. It is a balancing act that must constantly respond to economic changes. China's 11th five-year plan provides a roadmap for that response. The world watches in awe, and hope, as the lives of 1.3 billion people continue to be transformed.
  15、市场经济并非自我调整,不可以挂上自动档就放手不管。如果想确保大部分人都能分享市场经济带来的好处,就更不能放任自流。但管理市场经济不是轻松的任务,它是一种必须按照经济变化随时进行调整的平衡之举。中国第十一个五年规划的蓝图,是对调整的适当回应。全世界以惊奇、期望的目光关注着13亿中国人的生活持续发生的变化。

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